NBA Off-season What’s Next?
Volume 1: Los Angeles Lakers
Before I start publishing, I would like to point out that I am new onto this platform and don’t fully understand how to operate it, so any sort of feedback would be appreciated :)
Okay moving on, I am going to be doing a breakdown of the Off-season for all 30 NBA teams that will compromise of their performance during the season, what they should do in the off-season and what they should realistically try to achieve in the next year. And there is no better way than to start off with the most storied and popular franchise is NBA history… sorry Boston fans.
Los Angeles well, this hasn’t been your year Laker nation, but there is good news. It isn’t like your team is getting worse, you only had a bad season because of — INJURIES… well mostly. Is that due to the shortened break? Partly, I mean the Finals finished on the 12th of October 2020 and the regular season started on the 22nd of December, so the Lakers got about 70 days break before the start of the new season, without accounting for the Championship hangover period. But I think more than the time period, it could’ve been the formation of the roster post-championship. I don’t think it’s normal that a championship team changes that much in terms of personnel over a single Off-season. Let’s look into it.
You didn’t resign Playoff Rondo who was probably the 3rd or 4th best player in your playoff run (take your pick between him and KCP). Then, lost your 2 rim protectors, Javale McGee and Dwight Howard who really steadied the ship on defense and did the dirty work. The front office also traded and lost both your veteran 3 and D player in Danny Green for a player with an arguable fit and Bradley who signed with your finals opponent, the Miami Heat.
I think the media gave way too much credit to the Lakers for their moves in the off-season. Schroeder’s fit with LeBron was always a question, even more so after saying he wanted to be a starter. Harrell was a sneaky pick up to weaken their cross-city rivals but based on the 2020 playoffs, recruiting him was a negative. He proved to be less effective against Jokic and Porzingis in the playoffs. Marc Gasol was a smart acquisition in terms of his basketball IQ and how he would’ve been able to spread the floor. However, his lateral quickness has taken a massive hit. Resulting in him becoming one of the slowest players in the league and has rendered him ineffective against non-bruising bigs as he cannot guard outside of the post effectively. To be honest, I didn’t see anything wrong with signing Wesley Matthews who always plays hard defense and is a veteran coming off a season shooting 36% from deep and if it was up to me I would resign him for the next year despite his struggles from deep.
Despite all this the Lakers were still championship favorites prior to the regular season and even when the Nets got Harden, many media members and analysts still thought that the Lakers were better, regardless of the questions asked of the roster. Unfortunately, for Laker fans it had to be your 2 best players that got injured during the regular season that carried over into a play-in tournament for the 7 seed…not looking like defending champions at all.
During the season, 2 more mistakes were made in terms of roster formation that should’ve been avoided. Signing Andre Drummond seemed like a very sneaky move however, he has never contributed to winning despite his enormous rebounding numbers as he sacrifices basic defensive principles in order to grab these rebounds. He also takes inefficient shots that a player with a limited offensive arsenal shouldn’t take at all. To make matters worse they needed a role player not a player that tried to be a star and Gorgui Dieng was bought out by Memphis at the same time. A player who could keep the defense stretched by 3 shooting way above 40%. Even though, he had much less of a rebounding impact than Dre, his defensive impact is significantly higher, other worldly to be honest. The second mistake was that they refuse to throw in Talen Horton-Tucker into a trade for a legitimate 3rd option who makes big shots in the playoffs and plays incredible defense, who by the way has already won a championship. Kyle Lowry. Yes, I understand THT has some major potential and he could be the Lakers future, true, but LeBron is the best player on the planet and he was 36 this year. So is it really worth keeping a player who will probably come into his own in 4–5 years when LeBron is probably retired? To make matters worse THT barely broke the rotation and only played 12 minutes a game in the playoffs. You could argue that they could’ve beaten Pheonix had they been able to have Lowry next to James with shooters and Dieng, instead of a bog down offense with Drummond and Schroeder on the floor. When Davis went down in the playoffs, is it crazy to assume that a lineup of Lowry, Caruso, Matthews, James and Dieng can’t compete with the Suns, assuming CP3 still has his shoulder injury?
So despite injuries, I think a larger proportion of the blame has to go to the front office for not valuing the fit between players, which has to be corrected in this offseason. I’ve planned out my offseason moves for the Lakers which I believe can get them back into the Finals and hopefully give the King his 5th NBA Championship.
Heading into free agency the Lakers will only have 5 players on their roster. However, these 5 players combine for $105 million. Meaning that in order to revamp their roster the Buss family will definitely have to pay in the luxury tax. The Lakers will not have many options and therefore the only thing they would be able to do is sign minimum or near minimum contracts along with their exceptions while orchestrating sign and trade deals with the players currently on their roster after.
That being said, Rob Pelinka’s first move should be during the NBA draft where the Lakers should contact the Portland Trailblazers, an organization that is struggling mightily and offer them the 22nd pick, as Portland do not have any picks in this year’s draft. Along with the 22nd pick the Lakers should also throw in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who is a very handy role player for the Blazers to have if they want to try and be good next year or if they decide to blow it up they can receive assets for him as well. The Lakers should also throw in Kyle Kuzma, as Portland needs younger talent. Kuz is a promising player that has shown promise when the ball is in his hands and in Los Angeles the ball is rarely ever in his hands, so hopefully in Oregon he blossoms into the talent he was supposed to become originally. In return the Lakers receive Derrick Jones Jr. a hyper athletic player with good defense. Even though his shooting can be inconsistent he has improved over the years and can be a very good link with LeBron in a pick and roll. They would also receive Robert Covington, one of my favorite players. RoCo impacts winning teams with his hustle, defense and 3-point shooting. The problem is Portland needs players who can do more with the Ball to take some load of Lillard assuming McCollum gets moved this year and even if he doesn’t Norman Powell is an UFA and could move anywhere so Portland needs on ball creators as well, that is not Robert Covington. His skills would transfer better to the Lakers alongside LeBron and Davis where he can spot up in a corner knocking down 3’s and play defense. The Blazers should give up Covington because he is going into the second last year of his contract and his value will be worth a bit more now than it will be if they struggle next year, for then he would openly be on the trade market and his return would be significantly lower. Getting a youngish player with undiscovered potential, a 3 and D player who can help right now or be traded for another asset and a draft pick for a player not in your rotation and a 3 and D specialist with limited upside seems like a win-win situation for both. I understand the Kuzma’s value is at an all-time low but when he does have the ball in his hands, he has shown an ability to create his own shot and prior to playing with 2 stars, put up very healthy averages. The only problem is the Blazer likeliness to deal with the Lakers as they may not want to strengthen another Western team. But, I think the bigger picture should be realized by Portland and they should gain assets instead of trying to compete with a roster that is Western conference semis at best.
This saves the Lakers about $3.3 million in free agency. Meaning they will now have about $10.7 million before hitting the salary cap of $112.4 million dollars, from which there on they can only resign their players on bird rights. Whilst the Lakers are interested in signing Drummond back irl, I think with this money they should not sign Drummond and instead offer the 5% increase to Wesley Matthews which is $3.7 million which gives them 7 million dollars that they can play with. With this money they should try and sign Javale McGee and Gorgui Dieng to $3 million each, slightly above the minimum. These 2 are centers that they arguably should’ve kept/signed last year and they should right their wrongs by getting them in free agency this year. McGee provides elite shot blocking and barely played last year for the Cavs and Nuggets whereas back in La La land they could use a player like him. Dieng on the other hand has some offensive pop whilst being solid on defense not compromising the Laker identity. This means the center rotation is 3 different players with Gasol being able to hang with the bruisers like Jokic or Embiid whereas McGee and Dieng could be the more mobile bigs defending the pick and roll.
Now that the Lakers are at the salary cap they should use their bird rights on Alex Caruso and Dennis Schroeder. Dennis rejected a $16 million contract in hopes of receiving an $84 million one and bet on himself. That failed horrendously and it is likely that he does receive an amount similar to what the Lakers originally offered him. He will definitely be used in a sign and trade. Caruso on the other hand, first off… stay offffff the WEEED (Stephen A. Smith) but really they should keep him. Despite basic numbers of 6 points 2 assists and 2 rebounds, basketball is so much more than what meets the eye. When Caruso is on the floor the already number 1 defensive Lakers become even better going from a rating of 106.8 to 101.7. Also, Caruso lineups with LeBron and AD are plus 49.2 in 32 minutes whilst all of the Caruso/James lineups are positives and I mean every single one of them, regardless of who is around them. Even in an all bench lineup without James and AD, Caruso all but 1 lineup is a positive. This shows
a) Caruso synergy with LeBron
b) How much Alex contributes to the Lakers as a whole even without LeBron on the floor
c) They need him back
(https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/carusal01/lineups/2021)
Caruso will likely cost around $8–10 million dollars and will definitely resign with the Lakers if offered another contract. He loves it in Los Angeles. LeBron loves him. And the fans worship him. So I think they should throw him a 3 year $25 million contract.
G.O.A.T (Unanimous)
After this they should bring back their locker room guys in Jared Dudley and Markieff Morris. Every winning team needs players that are content with not playing, being a leader, veteran and just giving their all for the team whenever needed. These 2 are those guys for the Lakers and definitely will be resigning if an offer is given to them even on the minimum.
Next, the Lakers should match whatever offer comes to Talen Horton-Tucker as he is a really valuable trade chip after resigning him. (realistically THT will get offers of around 8 million similarly to AC because of his potential). Now that THT and Dennis are signed they should maneuver a sign and trade with the Raptors for 35-year-old Kyle Lowry who is also a free agent and has been rumored to leave before. Since Lowry is now 35 and his last contract was $30 million he is likely to receive between $23–27 million because of his continuous stellar play. As it is a sign and trade the Raptors wouldn’t get as much back but getting 2 younger players to add to a nucleus of Gary Trent Jr, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Freddie Van Vleet and Malachi Flynn gives them players on a similar timeline to what they already have, plus it also means they do not lose Kyle for nothing as remember he is an UFA. If Toronto drives a very hard bargain the Lakers would have either their pick in 2026 or 2027 depending on how the Pelicans utilize either the 2024 or 2025 pick.
Finally, the Lakers will only have their Mid-Level Exception to use as they used their Bi-annual last year, and with this MLE they should split it on 2 players, 2 veterans who are ring chasing or looking for one last championship run. As the Lakers are unwilling to compromise on defense I think J.J Redick is out of the equation. Hence, even though he is known as a notoriously poor defender, Carmelo Anthony should be the number 1 MLE target for the Lake show because he turns to another gear in the post season, where it matters. Since the MLE is $9.6 million they should split it $5.6 million to $4 million for Carmelo Anthony and they should throw the remaining money at Patrick Mills from the Spurs, who has always been a reliable 3-point shooter who gives lots of effort on defense simply by chasing shooters around. Like they say, defense is 30% physical gifts, 70% effort. If they do not want to pay even deeper into the luxury tax, the front office could choose not to resign Wesley Matthews and save 3.7 million that they could use in signing a player like Ben McLemore, or they could even persuade Matthews to resign on the minimum though it may be unlikely if he gets an offer of around what his bi-annual would be on the Lakers, elsewhere.
This would give the Lakers an experienced, physical, defensive team that will play right into the hands of coach Vogel. He would most likely run a 10-man rotation of:
Kyle Lowry/Robert Covington/LeBron James/Anthony Davis and Javale McGee
Patty Mills/Alex Caruso/Derrick Jones Jr./ Carmelo Anthony and Gorgui Dieng
Rotational and situational players like Wesley Matthews or Ben McLemore/Marc Gasol/Markieff Morris and Jared Dudley with space to sign a 2-way player.
Vogel has always been a defensive wizard orchestrating his teams with many different strategies, in terms of switching, making his bigs contain the ball handler and roller at the same time, his perfect backline rotations. He has even shown the awareness to adapt game to game. If you don’t believe me watch this from Coach Daniel on YouTube for a better breakdown.
With this roster you have a team capable of suffocating opponent offenses. With long, athletic players who have ridiculously long arms. Well if they run the lineup I think they will then their average height would be 6’7 and average wingspan would be 7 feet. Giving Frank all the tools he needs to run this team perfectly.
Moreover, LeBron has a plethora of shooters with Lowry, RoCo, Mills, Melo spacing the floor for him to operate the offense and carve out defenses to his will. Just to clarify let’s take a look at the shooting stats from deep from qualifying players (AKA not LeBron, AD, Dudley who didn’t play enough or McGee) Although McGee is the greatest sharpshooter ever.
Kyle Lowry- 39.6%. Patty Mills- 37.5%. Alex Caruso- 40.1%. Robert Covington- 37.9%. Carmelo Anthony 40.9%. Marc Gasol 41%. While Gorgui Dieng in Memphis shot 47.9% a career best and DJJ who also had his career best despite it being just 31.6%. Matthews and Morris shot poorly this season at 33.5% and 31.1%.
So with players consistently knocking down 3’s and spacing out for LeBron we won’t see another repeat of what the Suns did to the Lakers in the first round but instead we could see LeBron winning his 5th ring and banner number 18.
Being a LeBron team that is the only goal that the organization can have. In my brutally honest opinion, the next season is the make it or break it for ring 5, I think that is the last chance they will get with LeBron on the roster and they have to make the most of it.
So my realistic expectations- any team with LeBron should strive for nothing but a championship. So… Larry O’ Brien is the only expectation.
Yet again it comes down to health. Hopefully for the purple and gold faithful this extended period of rest enables their stars to become 100% healthy and ready to go again come opening night. So Lakers fans, y’all better be praying for 2 things, a good enough off-season so that a 36-year-old Bron don’t have to carry. And health. I envision this is you guys right now…
To anyone who reads this, please give me your feedback. Anything whatsoever :) also thank you for reading.